April 21, 2008


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Friday, April 18, 2008
Pennsylvania Surprise — Obama Victory

Pennsylvania is where Barack Obama delivered arguably the most significant public speech on race of the last 40 years. It is also where comments about bitterness in the face of continued Washington failures did him little or no harm. It is also a state which is NOT Ohio. There may be elements of Ohio but Pennsylvania is a rabidly independent place with a sense of its own crucial role in leavening the nation with some Pennsylvania smarts. That is why I believe there’s a Pennsylvania Surprise coming. Pennsylvania will be the state where the Bradley Effect worked in reverse. It will be the state where the undecideds went for Obama.
I am fully prepared to eat some crow if I am wrong. I do not think a loss in PA will substantially hurt Barack. But I believe we have a good chance of a win. And I will list my reasons below.
1. PPP says he has the edge. I go by Public Policy Polling. It is the only one that says Barack leads. They may be wrong. But it would be the first time this primary season. They say Barack by 2. I say Barack by 4.

2. Pennsylvania is not dumb. It knows that it can be the state that puts Barack over the top. That, combined with the historic event of Barack’s speech, will, I believe, motivate the undecideds to say, Yes, Yes We Will.

3. The surprise factor. So far the election has been nothing but. A Barack victory would continue the pattern.

4. The superdelegates were unswayed by the wretched collusion that was the Wednesday Debate in Philadelphia. It was aimed at them and nothing that the moderators or Hillary threw at them stuck. So the people in Pennsylvania realize that they can play the pivotal role in creating the superdelegate surge that Barack needs to capture the nomination.

5. McCain Impatience. Enough already will be the dominant mood on Tuesday. It is time to go for McCain. And time to let Obama flex his muscles for the big battle. McCain will be the target of Tuesday’s voting and the bulk of people, including Pennsylvanians, believe Barack beats him better than Hillary would.

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